Foreign exchange brokerages and central banks use a variety of methods to determine the value and staying power of any given form of currency.
There are two current major regimes used to determine exchange rates – the floating exchange rate and fixed exchange rate systems. In a fixed exchange rate regime, the rates of currency exchange are determined by the national government, and are not affected by market value around the rest of the world. With a floating exchange rate regime, there are several models within the scope of the regime that can be used to explain fluctuating currency values; however, these models serve only to explain the short-term expectations of change. There is no model currently in effect that can be used to explain long-term fluctuations in exchange rates.
How Politics and Government Influence Exchange Rates
The foreign exchange market is ever changing – generally mirroring the successes and failures of relative markets and governments. This is particularly evident in today’s political climate, as nations all over the world are seeing instability, uprising and revolution. Drastic changes in ruling bodies and government upheaval can affect the rate of currency exchange in both negative and positive ways. If the future of a nation appears uncertain, or if their native governing agency seems incompetent or volatile, a country’s currency can suffer, as the world loses faith in the stability of that particular market. On the other hand, if the new government presents itself as fiscally responsible and optimistic, the rate of exchange can increase, as the world will view the currency of that nation as a safe investment.
It is not uncommon for international investors and those living abroad to give serious consideration to the political situations in place in the countries where their money is invested. Many will quickly withdraw their investments from a nation suffering from unrest only to reinvest in a country that is commonly considered a “safe haven” for currency stability.
How A Nation’s Economy Affects the Exchange Rate
It seems like a given that the economy of a nation will serve as a direct reflection of the value of their currency, but the correlation can be complicated. Factors such as inflation, retail sales, deficits and national debt, and even unemployment rates can all play a part in determining the value of a nation’s currency. A poor economy serves as little incentive for an outsider to consider investing using the local currency. A strong economy, on the other hand, demonstrates responsibility and fiscal security, providing reassurance to investors that their money is well placed and safe.
It is wise to consider not only the immediate political and economical climate of a country when determining the most valuable exchange rates, but the historical implications of both factors as well. If a nation has a long history of economic growth and strong government, with only short periods of hardship or instability, it is safe to expect that any unanticipated downturns are only temporary, and that investing in the currency of that country is safe.
More Expat Resources
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
PGRpdiBjbGFzcz0iaXRlbSBibG9jX2ltYWdlIiBzdHlsZT0iYmFja2dyb3VuZDp1cmwoaHR0cDovL2hvbWUuZXhwYXRmaW5kZXIuY29tL2RhdGEvaW1ncy9jbXMvcnViNF8xMzIyMjEzNjI0NDA1NzIxMDAuZ2lmKSBuby1yZXBlYXQgI0YyRjJGMjtiYWNrZ3JvdW5kLXBvc2l0aW9uOjMwcHggMjBweDsiPg0KCTxoMz5HZXQgRnJlZSBNb3ZpbmcgUXVvdGVzPC9oMz4NCgk8ZGl2IGNsYXNzPSJkZXNjcmlwdGlvbiI+UHJlcGFyaW5nIHRvIG1vdmUgYWJyb2FkPyBHZXQgdXAgdG8gNiBmcmVlIHF1b3RlcyBmcm9tIHByZS1zY3JlZW5lZCBtb3ZpbmcgY29tcGFuaWVzIHdoZW4geW91IHNldHRsZSBpbiB5b3VyIG5ldyBjb3VudHJ5ITwvZGl2Pg0KCTxkaXYgY2xhc3M9ImNsaWNrYm91dG9uIj4NCgkJPGEgY2xhc3M9ImJ1dHRvbiBiY3NfYjE0MF80NSBmMTQiICBocmVmPSJodHRwOi8vbW92aW5nLmV4cGF0ZmluZGVyLmNvbS9pbnRlcm5hdGlvbmFsLW1vdmVycy1mcmVlLXF1b3RlcyI+PHNwYW4+R2V0IEZyZWUgUXVvdGVzPC9zcGFuPjwvYT4NCgk8L2Rpdj4NCgk8ZGl2IGNsYXNzPSJzZXBhcmF0aW9uIj4mbmJzcDs8L2Rpdj4NCjwvZGl2Pg0KDQo=
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
